![]() ![]() It is unimaginable that Damascus, having sought to reclaim territory in one area, would be content to leave other areas under Turkish control. However, if – and it remains a significant if – a deal between Ankara and Damascus resulted in the return of Kurdish-held territories, that would surely leave only the Turkish enclaves beyond the Assad regime’s control. In terms of the Syrian government’s hierarchy of desires, the desire to rid the eastern parts of Syria from American influence ranks higher than the small enclaves Turkey has created on its territory. This potential – and most likely ad hoc – alliance with the Assad regime will have that goal in mind. The last thing Ankara wants is for this area to become a de facto state, and Erdogan has made clear he is willing to use military force to stop it. These militias, with the support of the US, now control vast parts of Syria’s east and northeast, in areas where natural resources are concentrated. The sole reason for the abandonment of the enclave plan is the perceived threat of a Kurdish homeland.Īnkara has fought a long-running insurgency by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) inside Turkey and doesn’t want allied Kurdish militias on its border. What those living in these enclaves fear more than anything is what might be called a Sinjar moment – waking up to find Turkish soldiers have left and the Syrian government is back in charge, a reference to the Yazidi town in 2014, when Kurdish troops retreated overnight, leaving the inhabitants to Islamic State (ISIS) militants, with devastating results.Įven the rumor that these areas may one day be abandoned to the Assad regime would stop further refugees moving there – and would almost certainly make the rebel soldiers prepare for that possibility. ![]() That is certainly true for the 50,000 Syrian rebels in the Syrian National Army, a group entirely funded by Turkey. Indeed, even hinting that this may be an option – as Cavusoglu has – could make the whole endeavor unworkable.Īlmost everyone who lives in the Turkish enclaves does not want to be subject to regime control again, fearful of imprisonment or worse. In fact, it could yet fuel sufficient anger that President Erdogan may lose next year’s elections.īut if Turkey becomes the man-in-the-middle, mediating between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the opposition, many of the benefits of these enclaves fall apart. The refugee issue has become a domestic priority popular anger in Turkey over the number of Syrian refugees hasn’t abated. These enclaves, while deeply controversial and a violation of Syria’s territorial sovereignty, were a workable solution for two of Turkey’s greatest challenges – how to remove millions of Syrian refugees from its soil, and how to push back Kurdish militants from its border. In these liminal spaces, Syrians who sought asylum in Turkey have been relocated, their children studying in Turkish-built schools, using the Turkish currency, administered by Turkish governors and overseen by Syrian soldiers paid for by the Turkish government. Since 2016, Turkey has secured three of these enclaves all along the Turkish-Syrian border. If Cavusoglu’s words become flesh, it would represent a considerable change, abandoning one group of allies in order to defeat another group of militants.Ĭavusoglu’s comments are the first hint that Turkey may abandon its years-long plan to relocate Syrian refugees to the Syrian side of the border, but protected by Turkish soldiers. Coming so soon after Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi met in Tehran, as part of the Astana process, it is little wonder it is being seen as a policy shift. Yet doing so also places the country in the invidious position of having to abandon its Syrian allies, and undermines a plan that Ankara has spent years and tens of millions of dollars to create. There is an undeniable logic to Turkey placing itself as the mediator between the Syrian government and the opposition. His comments sparked immediate protests in the parts of northern Syria still controlled by Turkey, where the majority of Syrian rebels have relocated to, as the rest of the country has fallen back under government control. Unsurprisingly, though, Syrians inside the country and in Turkey weren’t willing to wait and see. This could be one such change – or it could be nothing, a mere comment. There must be a strong administration in Syria … that can dominate every corner of its lands.”Īs with so much that has happened in the tussles between Syria and outside powers over the past 10 years, many of the policy changes have first been announced in hints. He said: “We need to somehow come to terms with the opposition and the regime in Syria…. But Mevlut Cavusoglu, speaking at a conference in Ankara, also said something else rather intriguing.
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